It’s Thursday evening and the voice on the other end of the phone is dumbfounded. Almost speechless.
Henry* is a plumber in the western suburbs of Sydney where he employs about twenty-five staff. He’s been in business for nearly thirty years.
Great bloke, gun operator.
When COVID blindsided most businesses a few months ago, he was able to keep his going thanks to a big pipeline of work.
And then when the new stimulus measures were announced this week, Henry was straight on the phone after he downed tools that afternoon.
“Hey mate, you know how the government is pumping all this stimulus into the economy, how the hell are they gonna pay for it?”
It’s a scary question when you think about it.
I mean, leading into the GFC in 2007 we had no debt, a budget surplus, interest rates were at more nominal rates plus we had a two-speed economy thanks to the mining boom.
But now it feels like our economy has been jammed into reverse.
We’re now in enough debt to cast a shadow over Mt Kosciuszko while our budget deficit is deeper than any hole Henry could dig with one of his fancy excavators.
But to Henry’s question, we basically have two options to fund all the stimuli…
We can either borrow more money from other countries who are just as broke as we are, or we can print more money.
Henry hates the idea of debt. If he doesn’t have the money to buy a new machine for the business, he doesn’t buy it.
He’s also suspicious about printing money…
“There must be a catch?”
And he’s dead right.
Printing money increases the supply of money in the economy, but it comes at a major cost – it dilutes the value of money and makes cash the worst investment of all.
But wait, there’s more…
If too much money is pumped into the economy (stimulus), it can lead to inflation. Which is the last thing we need right now, especially for retirees and those without a job.
A Silver Lining
In recent weeks, gold and silver prices have started taking off.
And the reason is pretty simple.
Money printing effectively means we have an infinite supply of money in the economy.
However, because we have a fixed or finite amount of silver and gold in the world, precious metals are seen as a better storage of wealth because their value can’t be diluted the same way cash can be.
Make sense?
Therefore, as Central Banks print more money to fund their massive stimulus programs, it dilutes the value of money (cash) and makes other ‘stores’ of wealth such as silver and gold much more attractive.
To quote Newton’s third law, for every action there is an equal and opposite reaction.
The Smart Money
Gold started moving about a year ago, but silver hasn’t done anything since 2012. Meaning, once the GFC had well and truly blown over, it went into a coma for seven years.
But now it’s shining bright again.
The smart money has backed the truck up and they’ve started buying silver and gold because they can see what’s coming.
Meanwhile, the deluded continue chasing tech stocks at nosebleed valuations.
As world economies sink into the abyss, gold and silver could soar.
Have a great weekend!
Adam
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